Russia’s second batch of Rassvet satellites, launched on July 19, has reportedly failed to reach its intended operational altitude of 550 kilometers. None of the 16 satellites reached the target, with many ending up between 300 and 400 kilometers high, experiencing orbital decay, or reentering the atmosphere. This follows a previous launch where only 37.5 percent of satellites reached sustainable operational altitudes. The failures highlight Moscow’s difficulties in rapidly building a domestic Starlink alternative to compensate for lost connectivity over Ukraine. Russia faces significant constraints in closing the gap, primarily due to high reliance on the scarce and costly Soyuz-2.1b launch vehicle, alongside recent Ukrainian strikes against production and launch infrastructure such as the Progress Space Rocket Center and the Plesetsk Cosmodrome.
Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin appears committed to sustaining current force generation mechanisms through covert mobilization rather than declaring a new mass reserve call-up following the September State Duma elections. Reports indicate plans to deploy an additional 300,000 to 400,000 troops by leveraging regional governments and coercive local recruitment tactics, aiming to avoid domestic civil unrest.
Diplomatically, Putin met with Chinese President Xi Jinping and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi ahead of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit, highlighting cooperation on the Northern Sea Route as an alternative shipping and sanctions-evasion corridor. Concurrently, Russian officials have increased rhetoric accusing NATO of militarizing the Arctic.
At the same time, limited bilateral diplomatic channels appear to be resuming. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky discussed setting a date for visits by US envoys to explore peace solutions, while Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov attended the G20 summit in North Carolina and discussed a U.S.-proposed peace plan with U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.
On the battlefields and in rear areas, Ukrainian forces continued long-range strikes against Russian logistics, including marketplaces and warehouses in Belgorod and Sverdlovsk oblasts, as well as oil infrastructure in Leningrad and Yaroslavl. Ukrainian troops also achieved tactical advances in the Sumy, Borova, and Slovyansk directions, alongside the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka area. Conversely, Russian forces maintained offensive pressure, conducting frontal assaults and infiltration missions in eastern Ukraine, particularly targeting the Slovyansk and Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka sectors, though struggling to complete wide envelopments. Russia also continued its campaign of large-scale missile and drone strikes against Ukrainian industrial, mining, and civilian infrastructure, alongside adopting tactics to prolong air raids in Kyiv to exhaust air defenses and disrupt transport networks.
